2015: Race for APC ticket hots up

On May 11, the congress for Progressive Change, CPC, one of the merging parties in the evolving APC will hold it’s convention to among other things ratify the merger. The Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN had already done theirs a forthright ago. The All Nigeria Peoples Party, ANPP will hold their convention this month. Only the All Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA, where the Imo State governor elected on its platform unilaterally took a rump of the party in the state to the APC, is left in the cold.

As the curtain draws on the conventions, the focus will move to the election of a standard bearer for the party in the 2015 elections. Already, grand alliances, and jostlings for the ticket are intensifying.

On the card are former military head of state and thrice presidential candidate of the ANPP and CPC, in the 2003, 2007, and 2011 presidential elections, General Muhammadu Buhari (Rtd). Former Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, FCT, Malam Nasir El-rufai, former Kano State governor Mallam Shehu Ibrahim Shekerau and speaker of the House of Representatives, Aminu Tambuwal, whose rumoured romance with the APC is gaining ground each passing day.

From the past

In the first, second and third republics, the parties in Nigeria operated along broad geo-ethnic Iines. In the first Republic, the Northern Peoples Congress, NPC, was rooted mainly in the North, though it controlled the levers of power at the centre. The Action Group, AG was domiciled in the west, while the National Council of Nigerian Citizens, NCNC, called the slots in the East. The same pattern occurred in the second republic, where the Unity Party of Nigeria, UPN had exclusive rulership of the west, the Nigeria Peoples Party, NPP, in the East and the ruling National Party of Nigeria, NPN, in charge of most of the states in the North. However, unlike in the First republic, the NPN had a more National appeal with strongholds in a seeming pan-Nigeria outlook.

The third republic took the shape of a system rooted more in ideology, after the then Military ruler Gen Ibrahim Babangida (Rtd) foisted a two party structure that dismantled geo-ethnic hegemony.

The current democratic dispensation has witnessed a near exclusive dominance of the political space by the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP. Initially, the three regional outlook of North, West, East, appeared on the horizon, but soon fizzled out. While the Alliance for Democracy, AD which later metamorphosed into the ACN held court in the South West, the APP, (later ANPP) controlled 9 states in the North. Only the PDP has since inception maintained a National spread that has turned it into a behemoth.

The task of dismantling the PDP from the centre and across the various states, it rules has become a compelling challenge that has created the impetus for a merger. Previous, alliances in the past in pursuit of this dream failed to click.

Enter the APC

The APC, according to its leading founder and leader of the ACN, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu “is a child of circumstance.” It’s ultimate mission is to drive the process that will send the PDP packing. With the popularity of the CPC, and the ANPP in the North, and the near cult-like control of the South-West of the ACN in the South-west, the calculation is to achieve through these two broad divides, more than 60% of the electoral votes at first count in 2015, leaving only the South East and South South to the PDP. In a solidarity show over the emergence of the party, many disenchanted PDP leaders are said to be having a sizzling romance with the party; a situation that has kept the leadership hierarchy of the party on its toes.

Only recently, Babangida, a former PDP presidential aspirant upped the ante by sensationally nominating Tambuwal to go for presidential ticket in a situation where the second term ambition of president Goodluck Jonathan has not been foreclosed. A huge chunk of the governors, elected on PDP platform including eclectic chairman of the Nigeria Governors Forum, NGF, Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi, and Niger State Governor, Aliyu Babangida have barely concealed their involvement in the APC. The party, therefore, from this outlook is already taking the shape and form of PDP in size, content and vision.

APC ticket

As the party grows in all spheres, a disturbing contention is in who will fly the presidential flag. This is situated behind the ambitions and leadership style of Buhari and Tinubu. While Tinubu is reputed for dictatorial tendencies and imposition of candidates, Buhari is not known to brook any dissent or opposing view. So between them, the die is cast. Who will blink first. The APC has yet to lay down groundnorms that will show the light, and drive the engine of the nomination process beyond veiled comments of co-operation from the leaders.

Buhari’s first salvo is a ready willingness to step down for a superior candidate.

“Whoever thinks he has got a chance, let him come out because the more we are, the merrier it becomes.” He explains his ambition more. “I will be ready to step down if there is a formidable and better candidate. It is not about me, but for the survival of the party. APC is about ensuring internal democracy. Whoever emerges is the person I will support. Yes I will be ready to step down.”

Also former presidential candidate of the ANPP and a leader of APC Mallam Ibrahim Shehu Shekerau, argues that “it is too early to talk about a presidential candidate. In APC we will have internal democracy that will guide the party. Let us have the party on ground first, Congresses will be held at various levels that will produce our candidates. At that point, anybody can contest, and the party will support the best candidate that emerged.”

He gives vent of the party’s mission: “We are not just talking of dismantling the PDP. We want change we are not just talking about change in democracy, but change in attitude, change in approach, change in character, change in conducting the business of government. That’s why our slogan is change. We’re determined to change Nigeria for better.”

Based on the situation on ground, the ticket is bound to go the North, who have been behaving like fish out of water since 1999. With this permutation, the vice presidential slot or senate presidential seat may go to the South west, whose self-claimed marginalization was brought about by the nature of the emergence of Tambuwal as speaker in 2011.

Senator Smart Adeyemi, however sees beyond the change smokescreen of the APC. He sees the party as a paper tiger, whose bogey value will come crashing on the altar of vaulting ambition and ego. “quote me, the party won’t go far. Want until it’s time to pick the ticket: if it survives, then they have tied.”

Adeyemi, who is the chairman of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) committee in the senate, opined that merger processes in Nigeria are volatile and this will not be an exception to the rule.

The governorship candidate of APGA in Abia State in 2011 Oduagha Reagan Ufomba admits this much when he said that the focus on change is so enchanting that it tends to subsume other critical issues; which will definitely rear up.” How far will APC go? The ensuing months ahead will chart the path to deepen its existence, or it will crash out like its forebears.

source: the sun